Weak Madden Sales Signaling Trouble for Game Industry

[TheWatcher]

EA's marketing is the best in the business, they've picked up ground many times before, and I'm confident they'll do it again.

Wake me up for the quarterly and then again in January and we may have something relevant to talk about.

[rooney8]

Quote: Originally Posted by TheWatcher

EA's marketing is the best in the business, they've picked up ground many times before, and I'm confident they'll do it again. Wake me up for the quarterly and then again in January and we may have something relevant to talk about.

Slow start shows a loss in hardcore fans. If casuals really do like this game they should recover. I still think less than 4m on 360 and Ps3.

[LiquorLogic]

Quote: Originally Posted by roadman

If the pattern continues to happen, it could happen in the future.

Or, EA could put the resources they have to better use. Maybe by not renewing the NCAA license, and the NFL license when it expires, they'll free up some resources that can be put toward developing the game.

The approach that EA has taken,with Madden, for the last six years has been to freeze out the competition and market the hek out of their product. Freezing out the competition is expensive. Not paying a billion dollars for exclusive licenses in the future and simply sinking resources in to building the game is a lot cheaper.

The way it looks right now, EA might not have a choice. They're not going let the Madden franchise die.

[rooney8]

Quote: Originally Posted by LiquorLogic

Or, EA could put the resources they have to better use. Maybe by not renewing the NCAA license, and the NFL license when it expires, they'll free up some resources that can be put toward developing the game. The approach that EA has taken,with Madden, for the last six years has been to freeze out the competition and market the hek out of their product. Freezing out the competition is expensive. Not paying a billion dollars for exclusive licenses in the future and simply sinking resources in to building the game is a lot cheaper. The way it looks right now, EA might not have a choice. They're not going let the Madden franchise die.

Yeah the exclusive license has actually lead to lower sales for Madden. I mean 9.5m Nfl games sold on Ps2 and Xbox in 05 down to 4.5m sold on 360 and Ps3 in 2010. I guarentee when they signed the exclusive deal they would have been disappointed with less then 10m+ in sales in 2010.

[roadman]

Quote: Originally Posted by rooney8

Slow start shows a loss in hardcore fans. If casuals really do like this game they should recover. I still think less than 4m on 360 and Ps3.

15,000 units/day is a slow start vs last year?

I don't think there is 5 million hardcore fans that purchase Madden. You still have little Johnny asking mommy and daddy for Madden at Xmas time.

Also, we are having our church festival this weekend. Three years ago it rained and barely 50 people showed up. Other than that, it's been well attended.

Not this year. We are lagging behind 20% less people at the gate vs last year. This means less profit as well.

The volunteers all agree it's has something to do with the economy. This is something that people have been coming to for the past 50 yrs. It's been the same festival for the last 20 yrs. People know what to expect and what is being delivered.

To say the economy isn't having an affect is being naive just as much as people saying it's not the game quality. We all know that could improve, but all of us should be cognizant of both areas.

Of course, I agree with The Watcher. Wake me in January.

[mrprice33]

Quote: Originally Posted by kjcheezhead

I see these things differently. Catch debugging, run blocking, locomotion could be considered hardcore but...they are also all offensive geared and casuals love to see highlight plays and tds. If the 3-4 defense would have been improved, if the individual coverage assignments would have returned, etc. then I would say this game is for the hardcore. As it is, the game is built toward casuals and their love of offense/highlights and the user metacritic score reflects that.

So because the most realistic elements of this game are offensive, that lessens their import in determining whether or not it's a realistic, hardcore game? Where's the line of demarcation? Is it only 3-4 defense, or is the line somewhere else?

It seems to me that the line keeps moving. Run blocking and lineplay used to be a huge sore spot for people and what allegedly held the game back from being as realistic as possible. Now that the run blocking is near perfect and the pass blocking much improved, the target is suddenly the defense. What happens when the 3-4 operates properly? Are we going to move to the kicking game next? And what about after that?

I don't see how an honest person could look at the game in 2007-08 and 2010-11 and not say that 10 and 11 show a clear change in priorities from the arcadey tournament player to the much more realistic, simulation game. If you don't like where the series is headed on the field, I'm not sure what to say to you. Certainly the elements that surround the on-field experience need to be improved (I'm not sure that anyone is disputing that) but on the field this is the best simulation Madden of the series by a wide margin, especially after slider adjustments.

[mrprice33]

Quote: Originally Posted by rooney8

Yeah the exclusive license has actually lead to lower sales for Madden. I mean 9.5m Nfl games sold on Ps2 and Xbox in 05 down to 4.5m sold on 360 and Ps3 in 2010. I guarentee when they signed the exclusive deal they would have been disappointed with less then 10m+ in sales in 2010.

Keep in mind that there were about twice as many ps2s and xboxes in 2005 than there are 360s and ps3s in 2010. They are capturing roughly the same percentage of gamers in 2010 as they did in 2005. I did the math in another thread we had about this, and I can dig it up if you'd like the raw numbers.

[roadman]

I'm going to copy and paste a post that Adembroski posted a few days ago that I think everyone should take a good look at.

This is what Rgiles has been trying to say.

I want to look at the timeline here for a moment, because it's relevant.

2005 is generally considered by many to be the peak of Madden football. In that year, Ian Cummings and Phil Frazier were both designers, as they continued to be going forward. However, they were not decision makers.

In the leadup to Madden 2006, a "gameplay document" became available to MaddenMania members. It included a series of updates and fixes that were going into Madden 06. It was an honest attempt to reach out. However, the communication ceased as quickly and unexpectedly as it began. It was later revealed that it was Ian Cummings that was attempting to communicate with the sim community.

In 2006 or 2007, I'm not sure, David Ortiz became executive producer of Madden. The direction of Madden around this time went directly toward the tournament player. This was an open, conscious decision on the part of the Madden team. Phil Frazier and Ian Cummings were still designers, as was Ryan Burnsides (who I know was very unhappy with this approach).

In in the months leading up to the release of Madden NFL 2009, David Ortiz departed EA under mysterious circumstances. "Personal reasons" were sited, but rumors existed that there was some disagreements with management or other members of the team.

Madden NFL 09 was a David Ortiz effort. Madden NFL 10 was the first game that Ian and Phil were leaders on. In the time since they have taken over, we have seen the following changes to the "engine"...

* Game speed slowed to realistic levels and the ability to fine tune the game speed
* Slower, more realistic route running
* Locomotion, shifting the emphasis from twitch gaming to using blocks and setting up moves
* The most realistic run blocking system in football game history, by a long ways
* Increased presentation elements, including cut scenes and team specific storylines
* A working fatigue model, perhaps for the first time in a Madden game
* Pro tak, for better or worse, the first gang tackling system AT ALL since last gen
* An elimination of many over-the-top arcady animations, replaced by more down to Earth, realistic animations


Now, not all of these things were done well, but if you can't see the obvious change in direction, you're blind or ignoring it on purpose. A lot of people praise NHL and FIFA and ask "why can't Madden be like that?", forgetting entirely that it took 3 years for both of those games to get to that point... once the decision was made to make them sim. M11 is the 2nd Madden since that decision was made.

If you want a real test of Madden's progress, compare it to NHL 2008 and FIFA 07. Year 2 of the renovation. Look at NHL 09 and FIFA 08 to see where Madden 12 should be.