Change in potential

[Rumplebeanskin]

Simmed a season of GM last night as the Canes. Didn't alter anything, just simmed through without any line adjustments, no player movement or anything like that. Not sure what the stats or ice time were for my prospects, but the following screen shot is from the start of the season.



4 yellow stars for Rask, Murphy and Lindholm. Yellow stars across the board really.

By seasons end, with no attention paid to them:



Only Boychuk retained his yellow potential, everyone else regressed to red. Interesting to see. Didn't poke around long enough to try and guess a reason for it, but just thought it was good to see that potential does alter and a prospect isn't just nailed on to succeed.

[VR46]

I saw the same thing in a simmed test franchise.. nearly every top prospect ended up with red potential, and their trade value dropped to nearly zero.

It seems to be a bug.. I don't see a way to prevent it when they're spending a development year in the CHL, unless the game thinks we should keep 60 rated players on the pro roster..

The other odd thing is that when they're displayed in a list mixed with over 26 grey potential players, it will show the older guys as yellow medium potential and then most the young prospects as red..

The good news is that progression isn't ridiculously broken this year... it's far from good, but it doesn't ruin the mode as far as I've seen.

[Rumplebeanskin]

The more I think about it, the more I don't mind this. The players who are most likely to fluctuate in their potential are 18/19 year olds I would think, who are more likely to be variable in where they end up in terms of ability.

The only person in my screenshots that didn't become red was Boychuck at 23/24. I don't have a picture for Bowman who was 24/25 to see if he changed or not. The rest of the players are 22 or under, Zach Dalpe may just be an outlier, or just had a bad season.

I don't think this should happen to all players, not by any means, just that I see this as a believable explanation. Doesn't make too much sense why they would start off as yellow though, just start them as red?

[TommyWizard]

Happening to all my players now, even created a goalie to test it, 4 and a half green and even after a good season was red. Few seasons later and he's sat at 82 because of it.

Its kind of frustrating, trying to shut up the blooming scout and then drafting someone good only for them to be a dud after a year even if they lead the AHL in scoring.

Maybe I just suck or its a bug, I mean for only one player to keep his yellow star status (which was green) and the rest to turn red even after winning the stanley cup is a bit odd in my eyes.

[Rumplebeanskin]

You're right, that is pretty bizarre, and not cool. It certainly doesn't fit with my speculation about why they turn to red.

I do like that potential can change, but not if its always random, and always a decrease

[GlennN]

This is a huge concern to me. I'm about to start a BeAGM and I love to build up a team over years, get kids in the draft and by trade and watch them develop. If progression doesn't work, that's a deal breaker for me. Has anyone simmed years into the future to see if the change in the potential actually means there is stunted development? I want a random element, and I love the idea of having busts that never develop, but many players do have to get way better with experience.

[Rumplebeanskin]

I wouldn't become too alarmed just yet. This was just after 1 season where I played no games and no attention to anything on my team. It may have corrected in year 2 or 3, and those players just had a rough season. I know others have reported the drop to red stars, but again, this doesn't mean all players are busts, they can still develop to be superstars, they are just less likely to do so I suppose.

I'd be interested to see this over 3/4/5 years, with drafted players not out of the box players, and maybe a few different teams.

[VR46]

My test beagm is into the 3rd year and there's a troubling number of top prospects who have busted.. Morgan Rielly has 5.5 red stars and is stuck at 77ovr, his trade value is a sliver. Sean Monahan is much worse, 5.5 red stars and 60 ovr. I also drafted Roland Mckeown and he went to red right away and has been stuck at 55 for 2 seasons.

On the flip side, Aaron Ekblad jumped from 58 to 76 in one season.. but now his development is red too.. So we'll see what happens from here.

Looking through the league, about 80% of prospects are red, and I don't see any pattern with the players who have kept yellow stars.